Intrevyu Tanya Dzhoeva Valentine Radomirski
- Ambassador of Radomirski, Bulgaria hosting the Seventh Meeting of the "16 plus 1" has aroused high expectations for wave of Chinese investment in Bulgaria. A credit line of 1,5 milliard euros, there will be a Global Center for Partnership with China. Are we justified our greatest hopes or comes time for sober judgment? Where are directed interests of the new global power?
- For now been confirmed intentions, which in itself is positive, especially against the backdrop of the striking divergence of Bulgaria to take advantage of China's initiative in our area. I will not only remind how we sent our ambassador at the meeting in Beijing, while our neighbors in the region participated at the highest state level and even then failed to agree on major investment projects for their countries.
The "16 plus 1" is the regional stage for Eastern and Central Europe from strategic doctrine of China, known as "One Belt, once". This doctrine paves the Chinese influence on the Eurasian mainland and connected Africa and the Middle East. Used economic projects, which are provided Chinese financial resources in the form primarily of loans to recipient countries. For example, over the past decade Chinese investment in Ethiopia only 600 million. dollars, and credit lines -over 70 billion. dollars. And in this sense it fits the establishment of a Chinese military base in Djibouti. ie. after the economic and financial expansion inevitably occurs and the political and military commitment. It is therefore necessary sober assessments for each project, which will develop with Chinese participation.
Current delay should be replaced with "attack yurush", but to be tackled carefully considering the overall geopolitical situation. But this applies not only to Bulgaria, and EU-wide. It should be given the escalation of US-Chinese relations at the time and opportunity to their escalation to bring us to a repetition of the absurd development of the project "South Stream". The interests of the new global force more and more will oppose former world hegemon and we are in one of the regions, where their conflict of interest can lead to adverse consequences for our national security.
- What is your assessment of diplomatic relations between Bulgaria and China in recent years? Former Foreign Minister Solomon Passy as stressed, Bulgaria is the first country now existing, recognized China, and Hungary is in Beijing the third largest embassy.
- Our diplomatic relations with China in recent years have been subjected to the same stress as much of our relations with non alliances, whose members. From complete neglect we try to bring "canter" activation. diplomatic relations, especially with the pragmatic countries like China, not built that way. The first two governments now ruling shortened outrageous embassies and trade missions us zadgranitsa, and now they stepped into "their new discovery". Contacts were interrupted, analytical and exploratory work on the politics and economy of many countries, making it impossible to find niches in them to carry out our political and market initiatives. The example of Hungary is indicative of. I would add, that he is not confined to China. Through 1991 g. we closed the trade representation office in Moscow, Hungarians and widened its gradually shifted from the Russian market many of our goods, who had mastered the major market segments previously.
- The meeting in the format "16 plus 1" in Sofia coincided with the outburst of the trade war between the US and China. This raises an interest of China to the Western Balkans and Eastern Europe?
- This trade war is largely dictated by modern competition for markets, one of which is Eastern Europe. The results of this war, in particular the results of the struggle for hegemonic dominance as a whole will determine whose interests will prevail in our region. But definitely there will be a more significant and careful study of the Chinese side of the political and economic situation in each of the countries of shape you perimeter, but also their relationships and opportunities to build transnational projects on this basis.
The Chinese official declared willingness to cooperate with the project "Intermarium", which in territorial aspect is similar to Chinese "16 plus 1". But I think "Intermarium" or "Trimorieto", which was supported officially by President Trump last year during his visit in Warsaw, It aims to create a "buffer zone" not only between Western Europe and Russia, but a barrier for Chinese offensive to our continent. ie. interest will, but what are the real consequences of it at this stage it is difficult to predict.
- Politics Trump will bring you China with Western Europe?
- The current leaders of the traditional European parties are the product of neo-liberal ideology and therefore supporters defended the Democratic money in American values. And it opposes Trump and the bulk of the Republican Party. Turn globalization is a key pillar in the neo-liberal system of values, and Chinese interests are closely linked and dependent on the further development of processes globalistichnite. And these processes, favored to some extent all participants, provide incomparably greater advantages of large countries and groups of countries, as the European Union. At this stage is an objective prerequisite for the cohesion of China with Western Europe as a result of the policy of Trump 'America first'.
On the other hand, the dependence of Western Europe, particularly in the military and political aspects, continues to be so great, it is likely, if the policy of Trump wins no alternative to the United States, to witness the political changes in Europe, which will remove the management of existing EU neoliberal leaders, whether of the "left" or "right" segment. In a similar development can hardly be expected convergence of China with Western Europe.
- Some Western countries have excellent commercial and economic relations with Beijing, such as Germany, but reserved, when it comes to Chinese investments in eastern Europe. Why?
- Eastern Europe market, which major economic powers in the EU considered a "reserved law" perimeter. The growing presence of Chinese capital is of concern to those forces, that this "right" they may be withdrawn. Launched worldwide trade war will ease the task of those Western European countries, looking for ways to stop the "Chinese invasion" in Eastern Europe. Will be found suitable for explanation tools, with which the EU limit, if you can not stop, the entry of China in the region.
Whether this is beneficial or detrimental to the eastern European countries is a separate issue and it will get adequate response and capabilities in either direction only after being solved facing the EU fateful for his future questions - how speed "de facto" will there union after 1-2 years, how it will be formed this "de jure", what are the relations of Brussels with the main geopolitical forces began to take shape "multipolar world".
- There are different opinions about the level and content of the relations between China and Russia. some believe, that their partnership is strategic, others - that China leads solely pragmatic policy. You what you would have defended?
- My personal definition would be more balanced. consider, that the current state of Russian-Chinese relations as a result of ever-accelerating dynamics of their development creates a good basis for strategic cooperation in the future. Still both sides remember the worst decades of opposition to the two neighboring countries, even led to armed border clashes.
The statements of the leaders of the two countries, that increasingly meet and show increasing interaction on important global issues, testify to this caution, caused by the history of their relationship. According to Putin "sound cooperation with China reached an unprecedented level and (...) interaction with Beijing is one of the most important priorities of Moscow. "
And Xi Jinping, noting "the high degree and specific nature of Sino-Russian relations" defines them as "virtually irreplaceable". Even more interesting was his proposal, done before 2 and this year 10 days after another his meeting with Putin. At the Plenum of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, he said, China has offered strategic cooperation of Russia and that Moscow may consider this proposal carefully to 2030 g.
So both countries carefully and cautiously moving along the path of increasing rapprochement, proof of which began last year joint naval exercises, where Russian ships took part in joint maneuvers with the Chinese in the South China Sea, and Chinese - in common with Russian ships in the Mediterranean.
This situation in general terms reminiscent of the situation before 50 years, when the conflict between the USSR and the PRC Washington carried overturning formula "2 + 1" in its favor.
- What dynamics seems you think the triangle USA-Russia-China?
- It is likely the US to try to repeat that combination of US foreign policy, whose architect was Henry Kissinger (polzvavasht is now known to influence White House). The meeting in Singapore Trump Kim was "reverence" to China, and this, which is due next week with Vladimir Putin - Russia. Washington has complicated relations with allies and aggressively look for problems in Russian-Chinese relations, who, if you do not find, will try to create, to use them for their divergence. Eventually, global triangle function as pattern "2 to 1" in it country, against which the other two combined, is losing.
As early 70s, and now, US drilling conducted in both directions - to Moscow to Beijing. And each of the two capitals is invited to choose between Washington and other capitals. It is expected one of them to be swayed to "bite the bait", then the American plan will receive tangible expression in the sphere of diplomatic maneuvers will grow into real policy.
Schematisation this scenario does not cancel its meaning. Sure, that reality is richer and more "multifactorial", but essentially events described scheme seem very similar to this, what happens in reality.
Characteristically, that the US "divergence" between Russia and China is reflected in the field of sanctions, where each country along with "whip" is offered "carrot"; So they are faced with a choice, logical that Washington says will lead to a clash between them.
- What is the difference between the current situation and that of the second half of the last century?
- In the early 70s relations between Moscow and Beijing were in a stage of deep ideological divide and military-political confrontation. But then the situation on the Korean peninsula almost no effect on them. Pyongyang then apparently maneuvered between Moscow and Beijing, but it has consistently attached to China. Seoul was it under the scrutiny of Washington and pro-American dictatorial regimes alternated in power. strictly speaking, South Korea's potential for cooperation with the PRC and the USSR was zero.
But now the situation is different. A clear illustration of the fact, Beijing and Moscow very well understood the essence of opportunistic innovations in American politics, a recent visit by South Korean President Mun Yin Zhe in Russia. It should be noted, that throughout the development of the situation around North Korea and its nuclear program, Seoul leader held his hand on the pulse of events and did not follow the fairway of the policy of the United States. in front of, he acted at their own risk, connecting different interests and constantly subjecting his shoulder Kim Jong-un.
It can therefore be considered, this resource "connecting link" between the two theaters of military operations of this hybrid war will continue to act. The actions of Russia and China show the following: they believe, the key to success in this difficult situation for Moscow, and Beijing is in politics, where, not refuse contact with Washington, constantly coordinate their actions, they do not allow themselves to be "distancing".
Russia has the opportunity to influence the United States by conflicts between Israel and Europe (policy on Iran), and China is able to do this because of its deep involvement with North Korean issues. Russia's geopolitical military counterweight to Washington, and China - geoeconomic.
There are points of serious confrontation with the US: Russia are Syria and Ukraine, but for China - South China Sea a "weak link" Taiwan and fighting for the Straits, primarily Malacca, through which the bulk of world trade by sea. Those circumstances prove, that tactical plan supplementing the conflicting points and advantages of Moscow and Beijing them creates more interest in preserving cooperation, rather than replacing it with orientation to Washington.
This means, that the triangle has a chance to stay triangle, not to become a desired format for Washington "2 + 1“ (or "2-1"). The task of America in this case would be to force events. And the other two geopolitical centers of influence - slow "big game" and not allow Washington blitzkrieg, including strategic disinformation and disorientation.
In the West, the Russian-American status quo with Israel's participation in the East Sino-American with a focus on converging Koreas guarantee for global stability. But only in Russian-Chinese interaction, because otherwise his absence becomes a sum of destabilizing factors.
- Do you forecast how it will develop Trump-Putin meeting, which the world awaits with great interest, and perhaps with fears?
- World media are full of predictions and are right for the huge interest, and the more translucent fears of possible consequences of this meeting. We can summarize the various forecasts into several groups.
The most numerous are those, raising concerns, that talks between Putin and Trump will become zakonspiriran attempt to agree on a common front against the main enemy of both - liberal globalist community. In this scenario, all contentious issues at the moment will be left to solve in the future, and discussion of all the main topics of discussion will be a distraction, therefore the final declaration will be formal in nature.
The real agenda of the meeting of Putin and Trump, however, will be composed of specific individual negotiating points, aimed at breaking the global "deep state" and establish channels for future non-public interaction in this strategic goal between the two leaders.
These interpretations of the meeting did not offer breakthroughs on key thematic areas. They routed to alternative, secret agenda of talks between the two superpowers.
Such an agreement provides long-term cooperation between the two leaders in several stages. The first Trump helps Putin to abolish the liberal clan in Russia, which is associated with "klintonoidite", and in the next stages Russia, US and China will form a triple alliance for global governance, where it will be determined new spheres of influence. And Putin will be able to support the efforts of Trump on the road. Sure, this is a long-term strategy, the true meaning of which will be advertised, and it will be concealed with the usual rhetoric of confrontation and rivalry to appease these forces, Trump and Putin have not yet won. The most detailed this thesis is developed by Russian analyst Michael Hazin.
Another group of skeptical analysts say, that talks between Putin and Trump will not lead to significant changes, since the positions of both sides are deeply rooted in geopolitical contradictions and any negotiations can only be an attempt to put further pressure on opponents, which is unrealistic. In a word, everything is based on Kipling: West is West, East is East and as to move towards each other, they will not come down from his seat. therefore, we should not expect any breakthroughs on the major lines of confrontation Iran, Syria, Ukraine and Europe. It is noteworthy analysis of the Israeli analyst James Kedemah.
A third scenario provides an analysis of the Russian newspaper "Kommersant", which probably aims to restrict excessive expectations, to port some media predictions for the upcoming meeting in Helsinki. According to him, the agenda of talks has already been prepared, Parties have agreed on a joint statement after the meeting, which does not provide for improvisation and all the steps are exactly aligned. But these steps are the following:
1. At the insistence of globalist wing in Congress, that Trump has agreed to meet with Putin, Bush will seek written consent from Moscow not to interfere in US elections. Moscow, of course, will refuse, as this would be an indirect recognition of its intervention in 2016 g. At the same time, Moscow will make a statement to the effect, she never has done and does not intend to carry out similar interventions. This statement will be accepted by both parties and will allow Trump to show it home as an important commitment, he was able to win it on the eve of midterm elections for Congress in November. so Trump, even if not completely remove the Russian topic before the elections, it will significantly weaken and facilitate the eventual victory of his supporters. And Putin, who pass, It will help him in this.
2. Ukraine will be the official subject of discussion. Parties will be limited to declare its commitment to the Minsk agreements. The real solution to the problem will be removed from the scope of the meeting and delivered into the hands of assistants, you will need to prepare a new step-by-step "road map" for the decision of the Ukrainian question. Before making this card will be prepared and coordinated approach for the final place in this country in the new political map of the world. Very interesting is the message in this regard, that a number of celebrities have returned from Lugansk and LDNR back to Russia, which gives grounds to suppose the existence of a preliminary agreement on Ukrainian issue between Moscow and Washington.
3. The situation in Syria will be discussed in detail. And not because, that Assad is now much stronger and closer to victory than ever, none of this, the US is worried about the security of Israel and wanted by Russia to Iran away from the Israeli border. This will be discussed. but the main, that excites Trump, the fate of the oil fields in Dair Es-Dawn. And the reason is not only reluctant to give Assad a resource for strengthening economy. It's a fact, the United States have already invested large capital there, Now Assad deprived them of them. Preventing the expropriation of US assets in Syria is the main topic for Trump. It is, he would tell Putin and thus justifies its position, why can not simply withdraw from Syria without solve this issue. Trump will seek assurances from Putin, realizing, the United States alone could solve this by military means, but it will lead to undesirable political allowances for US. And it will cost a lot of money, and Trump does not need adventurous costs outside the US.
4. The sanctions will be the shortest topic of conversation. On first place, due to the fact, that the decision to take them by now overwhelming majority of the neocons in Congress, and while there is no required number of supporters Trump, To discuss this topic is "wasting time". And because of this project the official statement there is no mention of sanctions.
These three sets of projections form a complete picture of the context, which will discuss Putin and Trump in Helsinki. In any case, the meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump will be very difficult. Its success can be completely incomprehensible at first sight.
The main thing is to build a new communication system between the two countries. This will be the first full meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. We can only wish them successful negotiations.